IPCA+ real interest drops while short-term rates increase following IPCA-15 release.
In September, inflation exceeded expectations and affected the Direct Treasury on Friday, September 25th.
The IPCA-15 increased by 0.70%, surpassing the market’s 0.53% projection, while the effective interest rates on inflation-linked bonds decreased in almost all wages.
Titles associated with inflation in the Direct Treasury started the session with decreasing rates despite the overall high.
Real interest rates are decreasing across the majority of the IPCA+ curve.
The IPCA+ 2040 Treasury had its annual interest rate reduced from 7.31% to 7.27%, while the IPCA+ with Semestral Interest 2045 decreased from 7.35% to 7.31%. IPCA+ 2032 now offers a yield of 7.65%, and IPCA+ 2050 provides a rate of 7.14%.
With inflation exceeding expectations, there is a corresponding increase in the demand for protection, leading to higher prices.
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Short increases come before longer decreases.
The market saw a split in movement among the prefixes. The Prefixed Treasury 2029 with a shorter term increased from 13.83% to 13.91% annually, indicating reduced room for Selic rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Prefixed with Semiannual Interest 2037 dropped from 14.16% to 14.11%, and the Prefixed 2032 remained stable at 14.13%.
In the 2032 papers, the implied inflation increased from 6% to approximately 6.02% annually.
In post-fixed investments, the Selic Treasury 2031 offers a return of Selic + 0.0746%, while the Reserve Treasury 2036 tracks the Selic rate directly at 13.75% annually.
How much is this worth in reality?
Investing R $ 10,000 in the Treasury IPCA+ 2040 yesterday resulted in a gain of R $ 60 today, with the investment now valued at R $ 10,060. The same investment in IPCA+ 2050 is now worth R $ 10,052.75, while in IPCA+ 2032, it is valued at R $ 10,024.83.
Those who purchased Prefixed 2029 yesterday now have R $ 9,989.44, with a loss of R $ 10.56.
Simulations do not consider taxes and fees and occur only at the beginning of the sale. The person holding the title until maturity will receive the agreed-upon fee upon purchase.
Inflation reached 4.47% over a year.
IPCA-15 registered a 3.82% increase for the year and a 4.47% rise over 12 months, primarily driven by a 2.07% surge in Housing. This data suggests that the Central Bank may have limited scope to accelerate cuts in the Selic rate, currently at 13.75% annually.
View the precise charges from the Treasury directly on Friday, the 25th.
| Title | Annual income | Invest. Min. | Unit price. | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury Reserve 2036 | Selic | $ 1,00 | R$ 11,033865 | 01/01/2036 |
| Treasury Selic 2031 | Selic + 0.0746% | $ 199,01 | $ 19.901,38 | 01/03/2031 |
| Prefixed Treasury 2029 | 13.91% | $7.47 | $ 747,15 | 01/01/2029 |
| Prefixed Treasury 2032 | 14.13% | $ 5,01 | R$ 501,20 | 01/01/2032 |
| Prefixed Treasury with Semester Interest 2037 | 14.11% | $ 8,16 | $ 816,32 | 01/01/2037 |
| Treasury IPCA+ 2032 | IPCA + 7.65% | $ 30,80 | R$ 3.080,05 | 15/08/2032 |
| IPCA+ Treasury with Semester Interest 2037 | IPCA + 7.50% | $ 43,58 | R$ 4.358,03 | 15/05/2037 |
| IPCA+ 2040 Treasury | IPCA + 7.27% | R$17.99 | R$ 1.799,03 | 15/08/2040 |
| IPCA+ Treasury with Semester Interest 2045 | IPCA + 7.31% | $ 42,50 | R$ 4.250,74 | 15/05/2045 |
| IPCA+ 2050 Treasury | IPCA + 7.14% | $ 9,22 | R$ 922,42 | 15/08/2050 |
| IPCA+ Treasury with Semester Interest 2060 | IPCA + 7.20% | $ 40,91 | R$ 4.091,07 | 15/08/2060 |
| Treasury RendA+ Retirement Extra 2030 | IPCA + 7.36% | $ 20,18 | R$ 2.018,05 | 15/12/2049 |
| Treasury RendA+ Retirement Extra 2035 | IPCA + 7.25% | $ 14,41 | R$ 1.441,20 | 15/12/2054 |
| Treasury RendA+ Retirement Extra 2040 | IPCA + 7.14% | $ 10,39 | R$ 1.039,78 | 15/12/2059 |
| Treasury RendA+ Retirement Extra 2045 | IPCA + 7.09% | $7.47 | $ 747,14 | 15/12/2064 |
| Treasury RendA+ Retirement Extra 2050 | IPCA + 7.04% | $ 5,39 | $ 539,29 | 15/12/2069 |
| Treasury RendA+ Retirement Extra 2055 | IPCA + 7.03% | $ 3,85 | $ 385,86 | 15/12/2074 |
| Treasury RendA+ Retirement Extra 2060 | IPCA + 7.04% | $ 2,74 | R$ 274,22 | 15/12/2079 |
| Treasury RendA+ Retirement Extra 2065 | IPCA + 7.04% | $ 1,95 | R$ 195,55 | 15/12/2084 |
| Education + 2027 | IPCA + 7.50% | $ 39,10 | $ 3.910,40 | 15/12/2031 |
| Education + 2028 | IPCA + 7.60% | $ 36,27 | R$3,627.02 | 15/12/2032 |
| Education + 2029 | IPCA + 7.63% | $ 33,68 | R$ 3.368,03 | 15/12/2033 |
| Education + 2030 | IPCA + 7.63% | $ 31,30 | R$ 3.130,07 | 15/12/2034 |
| Education + 2031 | IPCA + 7.61% | $ 29,12 | R$ 2.912,62 | 15/12/2035 |
| Education + 2032 | IPCA + 7.58% | $ 27,13 | R$ 2.713,39 | 15/12/2036 |
| Education + 2033 | IPCA + 7.54% | $ 25,31 | $ 2,531,38 | 15/12/2037 |
| Education + 2034 | IPCA + 7.50% | $ 23,63 | R$ 2.363,74 | 15/12/2038 |
| Education + 2035 | IPCA + 7.45% | R$ 22,10 | R$ 2.210,97 | 15/12/2039 |
| Education + 2036 | IPCA + 7.40% | $ 20,69 | R$ 2.069,51 | 15/12/2040 |
| Education + 2037 | IPCA + 7.35% | R$19.38 | $ 1,938,83 | 15/12/2041 |
| Education + 2038 | IPCA + 7.30% | $ 18,18 | R$ 1.818,12 | 15/12/2042 |
| Education + 2039 | IPCA + 7.27% | R$17.01 | R$ 1.701,74 | 15/12/2043 |
| Education + 2040 | IPCA + 7.25% | $ 15,91 | $1.591,52 | 15/12/2044 |
| Education + 2041 | IPCA + 7.24% | $ 14,86 | R$ 1.486,82 | 15/12/2045 |
| Education + 2042 | IPCA + 7.23% | $ 13,89 | R$ 1,389,35 | 15/12/2046 |
| Education + 2043 | IPCA + 7.22% | $ 12,98 | R$ 1,298,62 | 15/12/2047 |
| Education + 2044 | IPCA + 7.20% | $ 12,16 | R$ 1.216,25 | 15/12/2048 |
National Treasury and IBGE have published the fees for September 25, 2026.
